National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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568FXUS61 KGYX 090307AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME1107 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024.SYNOPSIS...High pressure offshore will maintain very warm and humidconditions for much of the week. A stationary front waveringover the Northeast will provide a focus for showers and stormsTuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A trough will approach fromthe west Wednesday transporting remnant moisture from Beryl intothe region Wednesday into Thursday. Thunderstorms are againpossible Friday as a stalled remains over the region. A few morescattered showers and storms are expected over the weekend.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

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11:05pm Update... Just some minor tweaks to POPs for the nextcouple hours as some isolated showers move out of the forecastarea. The forecast remains on track as fog continues to moveinland along the MidCoast, and some valley fog starting to showup across interior locations.7:10pm Update... Just minor tweaks to POPs based on isolatedshowers along the seabreeze front, and adjustments to dew pointsbased on obs so far this evening. Otherwise, no notable changesto the forecast for tonight as we work our way through thiswarm summer evening.Previous...Strong surface heating has allowed for CU fields to blossomacross the interior while onshore flow has pushed some stableair into the coastal plain resulting in less clouds just inlandfrom the coast. Latest satellite and area webcams show thatonshore flow has allowed marine fog to encroach upon theimmediate coast and this fog will push inland tonight. A fewisolated showers have also developed over the mountains with hires guidance suggesting additional isolated showers will bepossible along the mountains to the Capital District of Mainethrough this evening. The loss of surface heating will allow CUand any shower activity to dissipate around sunset.In addition to marine fog pushing inland along the coastal plainthere will also likely be valley fog developing later tonight.It will remain warm and humid tonight with lows in the 60 tonear 70 degrees.

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&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Another very warm day is expected Tuesday with similar hightemperatures to today. What will make it feel even hotter thantoday resulting in a Heat Advisory being issued for southeasternNH is that deep moisture will be on the increase and dewpointsare forecast to remain elevated into the upper 60s and low 70ssouth of the mountains. This will bring heat index values above95 degrees for zones in a Heat Advisory and low 90s elsewheresouth of the mountains.A short wave embedded in cyclonic flow over eastern Canada willsend a glancing blow of forcing for ascent near the area Tuesdayafternoon. Diurnal heating will bring SB CAPE near 2000 J/kg byearly afternoon across southern NH into the coastal plain ofMaine with little in the way of a capping inversion. Theapproaching short wave will also increase deep layer to 40-50kts, which will be enough for organized convection. The 12Z CAMsuite shows some variance in storm coverage with the HRRR/FV3showing more widespread strong storms across the southern twothirds of NH into the coastal plain of Maine while the ARW/NSSLshow more isolated storms. Overall timing is consistent withstorms initiating over NH between 2-4 PM and tracking eastwardinto southern Maine. SPC has placed the southern two thirds ofNH and the coastal plain of Maine in a Marginal Risk for severestorms with the primary threat being strong winds with invertedV profiles. High freezing levels and marginal CAPE within thehail growth zone will limit the potential for hail while PWATsclimbing to around 2 inches will make torrential downpourspossible. Storm motion looks swift enough to mitigate the flashflood potential while there could be some training of stormsthat could lead to isolated instances of flooding.Thunderstorm activity will diminish around sunset while thewarm and humid airmass will remain in place Tuesday night. Lowswill likely struggle to drop below 70 degrees for much of thearea south of the mountains. Ample low level moisture will alsolikely lead to fog across much of the area.&&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A deep moisture supply in and around the remains of Beryl willcontinue to stream east, northeast on Wednesday. Showers willenter the region during the day. Very high PWATs can be expectedover the region as values rise to over two inches by late in theday across much of the region. This moisture, the remnants ofBeryl and some jet dynamics interplay will allow for locallyheavy showers during the day. As the atmosphere destabilizesWednesday afternoon with temperatures climbing into the 80s somesunshine and surface dew points in the lower 70s, expect a fewthunderstorms as well.These conditions will continue Wednesday night as the complexsystems continue to approach from the west. Currently, latest12Z models and ensemble solutions continue to focus on a stripeof high QPFS, mainly across northern and perhaps central areas.In this region, two to four inches of rain are certainly apossibility where localized flooding or flash flooding remainspossible. Less precipitation can be expected at this timefurther to the south, however this will need to be monitoredwith time as small shifts the rainfall axis can be expected asthe atmosphere remains loaded with moisture.Thursday`s forecast will be changeable. Somewhat of a dry slotcrosses through the region during the day as evident by loweringof PWATs with time after some early morning rains. However,models soundings keep surface dew points on the high side onceagain. Therefore, scattered thunderstorms can be expected onceagain, but not nearly as widespread as Wednesday and Wednesdaynight.Very warm and muggy conditions will continue during the periodFriday through the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure offthe Eastern Seaboard continues to pump moisture in the region.Weak short waves crossing through the forecast area will allowfor more scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region.Fog...fog may be persistent during the nighttime periodsespecially Thursday night onwards. Fog will occur both over theinterior valleys as well as the coastline.&&.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Short Term...Marine fog encroaching upon the coast will likelybring IFR/LIFR conditions to KRKD, KPWM and KAUG tonight throughday break Monday. Valley fog will also likely bring IFR/LIFRconditions to KLEB and KHIE for a few hours later tonight whileremaining terminals likely see prevailing VFR. Conditionsimprove to VFR for most sites Tuesday morning while fog maylinger at KRKD. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will developacross NH around 18Z and track into southern Maine around 20Zand most TAF sites stand a chance of seeing a passing TSRAbefore activity diminishes around 00Z Wednesday. Fog and lowcigs will likely bring periods of IFR/LIFR to most TAF sitesTuesday night.Long Term...LIFR and IFR conditions expected in widespread showersand thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night along withpatchy fog. Conditions improve to just IFR at times in scatteredshowers and storms Thursday and through the weekend. Patchy fogwill continue especially at night.&&.MARINE...Short Term...Southerly flow will prevail over the waters tonightthrough Tuesday night while winds and seas remain below SCAthresholds. The humid airmass in place will likely continueareas of marine fog that could become locally dense tonightthrough Tuesday night. Thunderstorms developing over landTuesday afternoon will also have the potential to track intothe waters with storm diminishing around sunset.Long Term...Winds will generally remain out of the south duringthe long range portion of the forecast but stay below SCAthresholds. Patchy to areas of fog may become persistent overthe coastal waters, especially during the nighttime hours.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ010-012-013.MARINE...None.&&$$NEAR TERM...ClairSHORT TERM...SchroeterLONG TERM...Cannon
National Weather Service (2024)

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