National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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016FXUS66 KPQR 100958AFDPQRArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Portland OR256 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024.SYNOPSIS...

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Finally, the heat has ended. Well, mostly. Will stillhave a warm day across the interior, but highs mainly in the 80s tomiddle 90s for the warmest spots. Lot cooler along the coast, wherelow clouds and fog will keep it in the 50s to middle 60s today.Overall, not much change through rest of the week, as high pressurewill maintain dry condition, with warm temperatures inland. But,again, not as hot as recent days.

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&&.DISCUSSION...

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(Today through next Tuesday)...Finally, a long awaitedchange in the weather pattern. Increasing southwest flow offshoreinto the Pacific NW has pushed the pesky hot upper ridge east of theregion, with its axis now over Idaho southward over the Great Basinstates. With this shift, will also see an uptick in the onshore flow.As of 2 am, marine low clouds and even fog blanketed the coastalregions, with those clouds jamming up into the coastal river valleysof the western Coast Range and Willapa Hills. That will keep thecoastal region cooler, with highs in the 50s to upper 60s.But, onshore flow is not strong enough to push the clouds too farinland. As such, will just have the moderating effect of highhumidity as that ocean air seeps inland. But, that, along with theheart of the ridge to the east, will bring more manageabletemperatures to the interior. Overall, most areas inland will seetemperatures get into the middle 80s to middle 90s inland, with thewarmest being from Portland to Salem area, and towards the Hood Rivervalley.Overall, not much pattern change through rest of the week into thecoming weekend, as will maintain warm southwest flow aloft. This willkeep inland areas warm, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.Interestingly, models still hinting that afternoon highs very wellcould be around or just above 90. Model guidances suggests that thereis a 50-75% chance that temperatures will top out above 90. Bestchance of staying below 90 is Thursday, as least wise until nextweek. This table shows the chance for high temperatures being above90 deg for select spots across the region:Chance of Daily MAX Temperature being above 90.... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MONTUEKelso 15% 1% 10% 20% 10% 5% 1%Portland 95% 40% 60% 75% 65% 45%25%Salem 100% 45% 65% 90% 65% 60%30%Eugene 100% 45% 65% 80% 60% 50%25%Hood River 100% 80% 90% 95% 85% 60%30%Finally, there is general agreement in the ensemble guidance thatcore of the high pressure will shift from southern Nevada (WED/THU)more towards the Four Corners region for FRI into this weekend. Thiswill open the door to monsoonal moisture working its way around thehigh pressure. At this point, most ensemble guidance suggests themoisture and thunderstorm chances will remain well south and east ofthe region, but there is a 5-10% chance that the thunderstorm threatimpacts our Cascades by the end of the weekend. Longer range showsthat will see uptick of onshore flow next week, with temperaturesacross the region being more seasonal. That is, with 60s to lower 70son the coast, and lower to middle 80s inland. Ahh, welcome news forthose weary of the hot weather of the past 5 days. /Rockey

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&&.AVIATION...

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High pressure over the region continues to slowlymove eastward this morning. VFR conditions will prevail forinland locations. Coastal locations have developed low stratus/fogas of 03-06Z Wednesday, with chances of these IFR/LIFR conditionsto persist around 70-80%, until 18-20Z Wednesday. Conditions mayimprove to VFR thereafter (still a 30-40% probability of MVFR),but conditions look to lower back to IFR by 02-04Z Thursday.Light N/NW winds this morning, expected to increase to 5-10 ktwith gusts up to 20-25 kt by 19Z-21Z Wednesday.PDX AND APPROACHES...High pressure will maintain VFR under clearskies, with light onshore flow this morning. Winds will increaseto around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by 19-21Z Wednesday.-JH

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&&.MARINE...

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High pressure continues to move east, resulting ingraduallydecreasing pressure gradients. Seas will mainly be wind-driven,between 3 to 5 feet. Pressure gradients tighten again Wednesdayevening, increasing winds into small craft advisory criteria.Given confidence is high, a Small Craft Advisory has been issuedto go in effect from 5 PM Wednesday to 2 PM Thursday for all innerand outer waters. Seas will remain between 5 to 7 ft through thistimeframe.-JH

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&&.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

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OR...None.WA...None.PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253-271>273.

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&&$$www.weather.gov/portlandInteract with us via social media:www.facebook.com/NWSPortlandwww.twitter.com/NWSPortland
National Weather Service (2024)

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